Gold Shunned as Global Risk Appetite Rises
The U.S. Comex gold futures fell 2.32 percent in the past two days after
rallying 2.71 percent on Monday and Tuesday, up 0.34 percent for the
week. In January and February, the gold futures dropped 5.83 percent
while the MSCI All Country Equity Index rose 4.66 percent. Gold prices
have dropped for five consecutive months while the Dollar Index has
risen 2.73 percent year-to-date. The S&P 500 Index and the Euro
Stoxx 50 Index are almost unchanged while the Dollar Index rose 0.57
percent to 81.949 this week.
Economic Optimism and Investors’ Returning Risk Appetite
In the past few days, positive economic data from the major economies
have accompanied the falling safe-haven demand for gold. A February
Chicago business report rose higher than expected, the January U.S.
durable goods excluding transportation equipment rose 1.9 percent
compared to the 0.2 percent expected, the jobless benefits fell last
week to a much-lower-than-expected 344,000 while the Q4 GDP was revised
to an annualized 0.1 percent from -0.1 percent. The February German
unemployment data fell by 3,000 to 2.92 million, revealing a better
labour market. Faster economic recovery has raised investors’ risk
appetites for global equities instead of gold. Gold-backed ETP holdings
level has fallen to a 5-month low at 2,508.5 tons.
Global Central Banks’ Stimulus Plans Still Support Gold Prices
This week, the U.S. Fed Bernanke has indicated that the $85 billion per
month of asset purchases will continue and is not overly concerned about
rising inflation or asset bubbles. Fed Governor Evans (voter) said
today that the Fed should not deviate from its goal and end stimulus too
soon because there are still a lot of downside risks in the economy.
In fact, the IMF expects that the sequestration, which will be likely be
effective on 1 March, will knock down U.S. GDP growth by 0.5 percent,
resulting in a 2 percent GDP growth in 2013. In Japan, the newly
appointed BOJ governor Kuroda may step up monetary stimulus effort by
bringing forward the open-ended bond purchases to May or June according
to JP Morgan’s Japan economist. In the U.K., the Bank of England
Governor voted for more QE while the rating agency Moody’s said that the
U.K.’s economic growth would continue to be sluggish for years.
What to Watch
Upcoming events we are watching include the ongoing Italian election
impasse, Ben Bernanke’s speech on 2 March, the Bank of Japan interest
rate meeting, the Bank of England monetary policy decision and the ECB
interest rate announcement on 7 March, and the Chinese trade growth and
the U.S. non-farm payrolls on 8 March.
Kelly Smith
Sharps Pixley, London
www.sharpspixley.com
01 Mar 2013 | Categories: Gold
